| 基于标准区间灰数的发展带离散DDGM预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭晓君,刘思峰,方志耕.基于标准区间灰数的发展带离散DDGM预测模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭晓君 刘思峰 方志耕 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;南通大学理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(71111130211,71363046);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(13YJC790198);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ13_0184);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;南通市科技计划项目(HS2013026) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于区间灰数运算体系尚不完善,灰数间的代数运算将导致结果灰度增加,难以有效构建基于"区间灰数"的灰色发展带预测模型.对此,通过将区间灰数进行标准化处理,分解成基于实数形式的"白部"和"灰部"两个部分;然后分别对"白部"和"灰部"建立发展带预测模型,再推导并还原得到区间灰数的发展带预测模型;最后,将模型用于摆动幅度大且整体趋势增长的区间灰数在未来时刻的预测,预测效果验证了所提出模型的有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 区间灰数 区间灰数标准化 发展带离散预测模型 |
Discrete DDGM Prediction Model of Development Belt Based on the Standard Interval Grey Number |
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| Abstract: | Due to the limitation of algorithm rule of interval grey numbers,the algebraic operations between interval grey numbers will lead to a much greyer result.Therefore,it is difficult to build a grey prediction model of development belt based on interval grey numbers effectively.To solve the above-mentioned problem,the interval grey numbers are divided into "white part" and "grey part" based on real number form by standardizing interval grey numbers.And grey prediction models of development belt are established respectively.Then the prediction model of the primary interval grey number is deduced and reverted.Finally,this model is used to forecast interval grey numbers in future time in terms of sharply-swinging and overall-growing trend so as to obtain an excellent effect.The prediction results have examplified the effectiveness of the proposed model. |
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| Keywords: | grey system theory interval grey number standardization of interval grey number discrete prediction model of development belt |
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