| 基于蚁群算法的灰色组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丰效,张凌霜.基于蚁群算法的灰色组合预测模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(14). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丰效 张凌霜 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西理工学院,数学系,陕西,汉中,723001 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 分别利用灰色GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)优化模型和新息GM(1,1)模型建立三个单项预测模型,进一步建立了组合灰色预测模型,组合模型的权系数利用蚁群算法确定.最后给出了一个我国人口数量组合预测模型,计算结果表明,基于蚁群算法的灰色组合预测模型的拟合和预测精度要优于传统组合预测模型.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 组合预测模型 蚁群算法 |
Combination Gray Forecast Model Based on the Ant Colony Algorithm |
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| WANG Feng-xiao,ZHANG Ling-shuang.Combination Gray Forecast Model Based on the Ant Colony Algorithm[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(14). |
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| Authors: | WANG Feng-xiao ZHANG Ling-shuang |
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| Abstract: | From the building mechanism of grey model,the GM(1,1) model and optimum GM(1,1) model and new information GM(1,1) model are built separately.Using those models,the combination gray GM(1,1) model is presented to solve practical problems for the number sequences.It improves the gray forecast model,and the prediction precision is improved.By the realistic examples,the result indicate that the precision of combination prediction model is higher than any one model in terms of fit and prediction and this model is proved to be precise and reliableis. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model combination forecast model ant colony algorithm |
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