生产安全事故宏观发展态势的计量经济学研究

为了研究工矿商贸就业人员10万人生产安全事故死亡率时间序列变化特征,基于我国行业生产安全事故死亡人数及第二、三产业就业人员数量等2方面年度统计数据,通过研究事故死亡率时间序列的自回归移动平均过程,论文构建了事故死亡率时间序列的分阶段自回归移动平均模型.研究表明:工矿商贸行业10万人事故死亡率变化趋势具有明显的分阶段波动特征,事故死亡率序列均为趋势平稳过程;序列当期观测值与滞后1期观测值具有显著的自相关性;各阶段事故率自回归移动平均模型结构不尽相同;特征描述模型为正确把握我国安全生产状况及趋势提供理论依据.

Econometric Research on the General Trend of Work Safety in China

In order to examine the trends feature of 105 employed persons production safety accidents mortality for industrial,mining and commercial enterprises,accident mortality time series stages ARMA models were built based on the annual statistics data on production safety accident deaths and the number of secondary and tertiary industries employed persons by researching on autoregressive moving average process in accident mortality time series.Studies have shown that:there were distinct fluctuation characteristics in 105 employed-persons production safety accidents mortality,accident mortality was trendstationary process.There were significant autocorrelation between current observations and lagged one observation.Various stages autoregressive moving average model of the production safety accidents mortality were difference.Characterization models can provide a theoretical basis for the correct understanding of China's production safety situation.