| 农业发展的集成预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯利华,王敏.农业发展的集成预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(1):170-173. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯利华 王敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学地理系,浙江,金华,321004 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用R/S分析研究了农业发展的总趋势.农业发展的长期变化过程既带有趋势变化成分,又带有周期变化成分,还带有随机变化成分,因而根据趋势变化分析、周期变化分析和随机变化分析集成的方法来预测农业发展是可行的,提出的集成预测模型的拟合误差比单一模型的拟合误差小,预测效果比较好,是农业发展预测的一条比较有效的途径.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业发展 R/S分析 趋势变化 周期变化 随机变化 集成模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年11月1日 |
Comprehensive Forecast of Agricaltural Development |
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| FENG Li-hua,WANG Min.Comprehensive Forecast of Agricaltural Development[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2006,36(1):170-173. |
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| Authors: | FENG Li-hua WANG Min |
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| Abstract: | The total tendency of agricultural development is researched by means of R/S analysis.There are tendency,period and arbitrary fluctuation compositions in the process of long-term fluctuation of agricultural development.Hence it is feasible that agricultural development is forecasted by means of comprehensive method of tendency,period and arbitrary fluctuation analysis.Calculation error of comprehensive forecast model put forward is smaller than that of single model,and forecast result is comparatively ideal,which is a relative efficient way of forecast of agricultural development. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural development R/S analysis tendency fluctuation period fluctuation arbitrary fluctuation comprehensive forecast |
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