黑龙江省农村劳动力就业的宏观影响因素分析——以状态空间模型为工具

以状态空间模型为工具,研究农村劳动力就业的影响因素,从深层次分析农村劳动力就业发展的长期性、动态性、阶段性和互动性.研究得到,在所有因素之中乡村劳动力人数是长期内影响劳动力就业的主要因素,且始终为正向影响,地区生产总值、农村居民消费水平、农村固定资产投资和农村居民人均纯收入等四个因素均经历了正相关、负相关的波动过程.由此将为人口与经济的健康发展提供理论依据,为政府部门的科学规划和政策调整提供可行性建议,同时对于人口城镇化的有效推进具有重要的现实意义.

On Macro Influencing Factors of Rural Labor Force Employment Based on the State Space Model in Heilongjiang Province

Influencing factors of rural labor employment were analyzed from the deep,including its long-term,dynamic,stage and interactive development,regarded the state space model as a tool.In conclusion,among all factors the rural labor force is the main factor affecting the employment in a long term,which always be positive influence,the rest of the four factors,regional GDP,rural residents' consumption,rural fixed asset investment and the per capita net income of rural residents in heilongjiang province are in a volatility process of positive and negative correlation.The results will provide a theoretical basis for the healthy development of population and economy,give the feasible advices for the scientific planning and policy adjustment,and present an important practical significance to effectively promote the population urbanization.