基于混合C藤Copula的我国一篮子货币汇率相依结构研究

利用C藤模型及人民币对欧元、澳元、日元、美元、卢布、加元、英镑、林吉特的汇率数据,构建了我国一篮子货币汇率的C藤结构,用来描述各汇率间的相依结构.结果表明,人民币对欧元的汇率是中心汇率,也就是说,一篮子货币汇率的决定很大程度上依赖于人民币对欧元的汇率.人民币对欧元汇率与人民币对其它国家货币汇率的相依程度反映了不同市场的强弱和市场间进出口贸易额的大小.进一步,混合C藤中各根节点的排序一定程度上反映了货币篮子中各国的经济实力及与我国的贸易额大小.

Study on Dependence Structure of RMB Exchange Rates with Basket of Currencies Based on Mixed C-vines

Based on mixed C-vines,this paper investigates the dependence structure of RMB exchange rates with basket of currencies.Using the data of RMB exchange rate against EURO,Australian dollar,Japanese Yen,US dollar,Russian ruble,Canadian Dollar,Malaysian Ringgit,it reveals that the exchange rate between the RMB and the EURO is the central exchange reat,i.e.that the exchange rates of our data set dependent to a greater or lesser extent on the exchange rate of the RMB to the EURO.The strong correlations between the exchange rate of the EURO to the RMB and the other exchange rates to the RMB can be explained by the power of the different markets and the export and import.Furthermore,the order of root nodes in mixed C-vines also shows the economic power and the trade route of the different markets.