| 新产品研发项目GERT模型及其模拟求解 |
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| 引用本文： | 何正文,徐渝,朱少英,张静文.新产品研发项目GERT模型及其模拟求解[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(11):45-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何正文 徐渝 朱少英 张静文 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安,710049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金海外杰出青年基金 B类项目 ( 70 0 2 810 2 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以新产品研发项目—— V CDM3型真空树脂灌注机的研发过程为背景 ,利用随机网络技术建立了该项目的 GERT模型 ;基于 GERT模型的简化递推算法 ,作者编制了专用软件对该模型进行了模拟求解 ,获得了项目完成时间的各种统计特征值和概率分布直方图 ;根据模拟计算结果 ,作者进一步对项目完成时间进行了统计推断 ,从而为项目进度的控制和决策提供了定量化的参考依据 .
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| 关 键 词： | 新产品研发 项目完成时间 GERT模型 模拟求解 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年2月28日 |
GERT Model and Its Simulation Solution of New Product Development Projects |
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| HE Zheng-wen,XU Yu,ZHU Shao-ying,ZHANG Jing-wen.GERT Model and Its Simulation Solution of New Product Development Projects[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2003,33(11):45-50. |
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| Authors: | HE Zheng-wen XU Yu ZHU Shao-ying ZHANG Jing-wen |
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| Abstract: | This paper takes the new product development project—VCDM3 Vacuum Resin Dosing Equipment development—as its research background. By using random network techniques the GERT model of the project is constructed at first. Then based on the recursive simplification algorithm of GERT model the special software is developed. Through the software, simulation analysis of the project′s finish time is carried out and its probability distribution and statistical eigenvalues are obtained. In addition, statistical estimation of the project′s finish time is made out on the basis of the simulation outcomes. In this way, quantitative information supports can be provided for managers to make decision and control the duration of the project. |
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| Keywords: | new product development project′s finish time GERT model simulation solution |
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