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基于熵权灰色关联分析的群体性突发事件预警模型
引用本文:张秋菊,朱帮助.基于熵权灰色关联分析的群体性突发事件预警模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(24).
作者姓名:张秋菊  朱帮助
作者单位:五邑大学系统科学与技术研究所,广东 江门529020;北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081
基金项目:广东省软科学研究项目(2009B070300146); 江门市哲学社会科学规划课题(2009C25)
摘    要:群体性突发事件是当前我国社会危机的一个突出问题,迫切需要进行有效地监测与预警.针对江门的社会、经济、文化特点,设计了一套群体性突发事件预警指标体系.引入信息熵理论,采用熵值法来确定指标权重,建立了基于熵权和灰色关联度的群体性突发事件预警模型.用上述模型对江门市进行实证研究,表明江门市2005年-2008年间除2006年处于中险警级外,其余年份都处于轻险警级.最后,根据实证分析结果,提出了政策建议.

关 键 词:群体性突发事件  预警    灰色关联分析

Forewarning Model of Group Unexpected Incidents Involving Mass Participation Based on Entropy Methods and Grey Relevant Analysis
ZHANG Qiu-ju , ZHU Bang-zhu.Forewarning Model of Group Unexpected Incidents Involving Mass Participation Based on Entropy Methods and Grey Relevant Analysis[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(24).
Authors:ZHANG Qiu-ju  ZHU Bang-zhu
Institution:ZHANG Qiu-ju~(1,2),ZHU Bang-zhu~(1,2) (1.Institute of Systems Science and Technology,Wuyi University,Jiangmen 529020,China) (2.School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
Abstract:As an important issue,it is urgently needed to monitor and forewarn the Group unexpected incidents involving mass participation.Considering for the social,economic and cultural characteristics of Jiangmen,a forewarning index system is designed.Entropy method is applied to derive the relative importance of each index,and a grey relevant analysis model is established,which can reflect the risk forewarning degree of group unexpected incidents involving mass participation.The model is applied to make forewarnin...
Keywords:group unexpected incidents involving mass participation  forewarning  entropy  grey relevant analysis  
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