| 基于样条模型的汽车可靠性双向联合预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丹,谷德峰,饶彬,吴孟达.基于样条模型的汽车可靠性双向联合预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2005,35(7):84-90. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丹 谷德峰 饶彬 吴孟达 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学数学与系统科学系,湖南,长沙,410073 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析原始数据和“千车故障数”计算的不合理性,提出了改进的千车故障数的计算方法,并对原始数据进行变换得到了合理的数据表.通过假设检验得出瞬时故障率是服从Weibull分布,在此基础上提出了单批次预测的概率模型.进一步,利用数据横向和纵向的相关性,在单批次概率模型的基础上,提出了基于样条拟合的多批次双向联合预测模型,这个模型保证了横向和纵向的有机结合,通过拟合汽车的质量参数,来进行联合预测,维护了数据的统一性.
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| 关 键 词： | 千车故障数 瞬时故障率 相关分析 Weibull分布 质量参数 样条模型 |
The Combine Forecasting of the Reliability of Auto Based on Spline Model |
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| WANG Dan,GU De-feng,RAO Bin,WU Meng-da.The Combine Forecasting of the Reliability of Auto Based on Spline Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2005,35(7):84-90. |
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| Authors: | WANG Dan GU De-feng RAO Bin WU Meng-da |
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| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the inconsequence of the primitive data and ″failure number per thousands auto″ and presents the computing method of correctional ″failure number per thousands auto″. Based on new method, the reasonable data table is gained. Meanwhile, by test of hypothesis, we conclude that the failure rate submits to WEIBULL distribution. Based on the conclusion, the probability model of single batch forecasting is presented. Further, by the correlation of horizontal data and vertical data, multi-batch bidirectional forecasting model based on spline fitting is presented. The model guarantees the unification of horizontal data and vertical data. |
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| Keywords: | failure number per thousands instantaneous failure rate correlation analysis WEIBULL distribution |
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