| 基于BEKK方差模型的干散货航运市场间波动溢出效应分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 范永辉,杨华龙,刘金霞.基于BEKK方差模型的干散货航运市场间波动溢出效应分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(23). |
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| 作者姓名： | 范永辉 杨华龙 刘金霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁 大连,116026 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对灵便型、巴拿马型和海岬型干散货航运市场间的互动关系问题,选取波罗的海干散货运价指数,应用多元广义自回归条件异方差中的BEKK方差分析模型,研究了干散货航运市场间的波动溢出效应.发现海岬型干散货航运市场对灵便型和巴拿马型干散货航运市场存在波动溢出效应,而灵便型和巴拿马型干散货航运市场对海岬型干散货航运市场不存在波动溢出效应,灵便型干散货航运市场和巴拿马型干散货航运市场之间存在双向波动溢出效应,Wald检验验证了上述结论的正确性.从而可为航运经营者规避干散货航运市场波动风险提供决策参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 干散货航运市场 波动溢出效应 BEKK方差模型 |
Analysis of Volatility Spillover Effect Among Dry Bulk Shipping Markets Based on BEKK Variance Model |
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| Fan Yong-hui
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YANG Hua-long
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LIU Jin-xia.Analysis of Volatility Spillover Effect Among Dry Bulk Shipping Markets Based on BEKK Variance Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(23). |
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| Authors: | Fan Yong-hui YANG Hua-long LIU Jin-xia |
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| Abstract: | In view of the interactive relationship among handysize,panamax and capsize dry bulk shipping markets,the dry bulk freight indexes of different vessel types issued by the Baltic Shipping Exchange were employed and the volatiUty spillover effect among three dry bulk shipping markets of different vessel types was studied by BEKK variance model of multivariate GARCH.It is pointed that capesize dry bulk shipping market has volatiUty spillover effect on handysize dry bulk shipping market and panamax dry bulk shipping market while handysize dry bulk shipping market and panamax dry bulk shipping market have no volatility spillover effect on capesize dry bulk shipping market,and there is a two-way volatility spillover effect between handysize dry bulk shipping market and panamax dry bulk shipping market.Wald test verified the correctness of above inference.The results can provide references for dry bulk shipping operators to avoid risk of market volatility. |
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| Keywords: | dry bulk shipping market volatility spillover effect BEKK variance model |
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