| 北京市道路交通事故灰色预测模型的构建与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘淑环,焦宝聪.北京市道路交通事故灰色预测模型的构建与应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘淑环 焦宝聪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国政法大学,科学技术教学部,北京,102249
2. 首都师范大学,数学科学学院,北京,100037 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用灰色预测理论,根据北京市1999～2006年道路交通事故的统计资料,建立了北京市道路交通事故发生次数的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并根据实际数据的特点,对所建立的模型进行了改进.经证实,改进后的GM(1,1)模型预测精度高,预测结果与实际相符.GM(1,1)模型的预测结果可为北京市道路交通管理部门制定预防交通事故的措施提供重要的数据支持和理论依据,这对加强北京市的道路交通管理、改善北京市的道路交通安全状况将具有一定的现实意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通事故 灰色GM(1 1)模型 预测 |
The Construction and Application of Grey Forecast Model In Road Traffic Accident of Beijing |
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| LIU Shu-huan,JIAO Bao-cong.The Construction and Application of Grey Forecast Model In Road Traffic Accident of Beijing[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(9). |
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| Authors: | LIU Shu-huan JIAO Bao-cong |
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| Abstract: | According to the Grey Model theory and method,bases on the statistics collected from 1999 to 2006 of Beijing road traffic accidents,building GM(1,1)on number of traffic accident.And improve the GM(1,1)bases on actual statistics of Beijing traffic accidents.In practice,the improved GM(1,1)has great precision with good effect of forecasting.The forecasting result can provide important data and theoretical basis for controlling Beijing traffic accidents,which will have a certain significance and practical value in enhancement of traffic management and the improvement of road safety. |
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| Keywords: | traffic accidents grey model of GM(1 1) forecast |
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