| 香港艾滋病近期传播特征与动态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 马建忠,王琦,单连峰.香港艾滋病近期传播特征与动态预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(12):145-148. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马建忠 王琦 单连峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国医科大学数学室,沈阳,110001
2. 沈阳骨科医院,沈阳,110044 |
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| 摘 要： | 首次研究出香港艾滋病目前传播势态为一元线性回归方程,并由方程的预测值和斜率的变化动态监测香港艾滋病近期发病趋势,艾滋病病毒感染者年平均发病率为255至271个,艾滋病病患者年平均发病率为56个左右.本文研究方法简单易行,对香港政府近期预防艾滋病有重要的理论和实用价值.
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| 关 键 词： | 香港艾滋病 数学模型 传播特征 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月21日 |
Research on the Epidemic Feature of Hong Kong's Recently HIV/AIDS and Its Moving Forecast |
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| MA Jian-zhong,WANG Qi,DAN Lian-fen.Research on the Epidemic Feature of Hong Kong''''s Recently HIV/AIDS and Its Moving Forecast[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2006,36(12):145-148. |
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| Authors: | MA Jian-zhong WANG Qi DAN Lian-fen |
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| Abstract: | The epidemic feature of Hong Kong′s recently HIV/AIDS infection has been expressed with the linear regression equation.Hong Kong′s susceptible accumulative numbers of HIV/AIDS infection from 2006 to 2008 are well forecasted using its equation and sloping rate.The averaging infection rate of the recently year of HIV are gained with 255—271.The averaging infection rate of the recently year of AIDS are gained with 56 approximately.It is important for Hong Kong′s government to recently prevent HIV/AIDS in practice. |
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| Keywords: | HIV/AIDS of Hong Kong the epidemic Model the epidemic feature |
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