首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

中国成品油定价机制的实证分析
引用本文:赵鲁涛,冯可梁,姚云飞,吴刚.中国成品油定价机制的实证分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(10):55-61.
作者姓名:赵鲁涛  冯可梁  姚云飞  吴刚
作者单位:1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190;北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081
2. 北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081;北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081
3. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190
基金项目:国家自然科学基金,高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金
摘    要:随着原油对外依存度的提高,我国的成品油价格受国际油价的潜在影响也逐步增大.为了平衡油价高企对国内各方面的影响,2009年我国推出了新的成品油定价机制,以期在一定程度上能够与国际原油价格接轨.使用Granger因果关系分析、ECM等计量经济学方法,对我国成品油价格特征及其与国际原油市场的互动关系进行定量分析,进而探讨2009年定价机制改革的效果.研究结果表明国际原油价格是国内成品油价格的Granger原因,二者之间存在长期的协整关系,但在现有的定价机制下,短期内国际原油价格的波动难以影响到国内成品油价格.现有的定价机制并没有有效地提升国内成品油价格与国际原油价格的接轨程度.

关 键 词:成品油定价  定价机制改革  协整分析  误差修正模型

Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Refined Oil Pricing in China
ZHAO Lu-tao , FENG Ke-liang , YAO Yun-fei , WU Gang.Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Refined Oil Pricing in China[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(10):55-61.
Authors:ZHAO Lu-tao  FENG Ke-liang  YAO Yun-fei  WU Gang
Institution:1 (1.Institute of Policy and Management,Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100190,China) (2.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081, China) (3.School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
Abstract:With the increasing interdependency on crude oil,the potential impacts of the volatility of international crude oil price on the domestic sale price of refined oil product in China increase step by step.In order to balance these impacts on the interests of all parties, the NDRC establish the new pricing mechanism in 2009.Using Granger causality test and ECM,the paper analyzes the relationship of crude oil price and petroleum products’ price quantitatively and the effectiveness of the pricing mechanism.The results indicate that the price of crude oil and petroleum products are coordinate in long term.While in short term the volatility of international crude oil price can not affect the domestic sale price of refined oil product.The existing pricing mechanism does not effectively enhance the convergence of domestic refined oil prices and international crude oil prices.
Keywords:refined oil’s pricing  pricing mechanism reform  cointegration analysis  ECM
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号