土地市场波动与房地产价格的关系分析:基于VAR模型的实证研究

随着中国经济增长、城市化的发展,房价不断攀升,居民面临巨大的购房压力,而政府也开始对房地产市场进行调控,在房价构成因素中,土地成本占有很大比重,因此土地价格,土地供应面积与房地产价格之间的关系研究对促进房地产市场的合理发展有十分重要的意义.以2002年到2011年我国土地供应面积,土地购置价格和房地产价格的月度数据为样本,对土地供应面积,土地购置价格与房地产价格进行协整检验后,构建VAR模型进行格兰杰因果检验后发现土地供应价格,面积和房地产价格互为因果;对城市土地购置价格和房地产价格进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解后发现房地产价格和土地价格之间的存在相互影响,且在短期内都受土地供应面积的影响但程度不高.

Study on the Relationship Between Land Price, Land Supply Area and Housing Pirce: An Empircal Analysis Based on VAR Model

With growth of China's economic and the development of urbanization,the housing price and the pressure of purchase house raising.The government began to regulate the real estate market.The cost of land is a large proportion of housing price components; so,it is important to research the relationship between land price,land supply area and the housing price.This paper use the monthly data from 2002 to 2011 for study,do Cointegration test to land supply,land price and housing price.Then use VAR model to do the Granger test,do the ISF analysis and Variance decomposition to housing price and land price,the result show that there exits interaction relationship between housing price and land price, both them can effected by the supply of land area in short time,but the extent is not high.