对居民消费品限价政策效果的模拟研究

出于社会稳定、经济健康发展以及规避风险的需要,政府经常对居民消费品使用限价政策.为分析对消费品限价政策的效果,分别设置了5种情景,模拟在石油天然气开采部门产品提价时,不同限价政策对居民部门价格指数的抑制效果.以投入产出技术为模拟工具,利用生产时滞价格传导时序模型和2007年中国投入产出表进行了模拟.模拟提供的时间序列数据表明,限价政策对抑制价格风险有效,限价政策力度直接决定着对价格指数的抑制效果,限价政策只能降低而不能完全化解风险等结论.

Study on the Effect of Forced Quotation Policy Simulation on Household Consumer Goods

The government often controls economy by issuing and implementing the forced quotation policy on household consumer goods,in order to ensure social stability,healthy economy and risk averse.To analyze the effect of forced quotation policy on household consumer goods,five different polices were assumed in this thesis when there was a price rise from oil & natural gas exploitation department,which resulted in different restrain effects simulation on price index of resident section.Taking input-output technology as the simulation tool,this paper uses the price of time lag in production to conduct sequence models and compare them with the input-output table of China in 2007.However,the time series data which comes from simulations shows that forced quotation policy has an effect on price risk averse and the policy intensity directly determines restrain effects on price index.Moreover, forced quotation policy can reduce risks but not defuse them.