| 中国外汇储备规模适度性研究与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘雪松,曹显兵.中国外汇储备规模适度性研究与预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(8):97-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘雪松 曹显兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京工商大学经济学院数理系,北京,100037 |
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| 摘 要： | 2005年,我国的外汇储备已经达到8188.72亿美元,且在近几年呈高速增长的势态.我国的外汇储备是否过多,这种增长是否会继续,面对高额的外汇储备,我们应该采取怎样的态度和政策?利用1979年—2005年的年度数据,运用协整分析的方法对外汇储备及相关变量进行分析,并通过得出的结论对上述问题给出一个解答.
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| 关 键 词： | 外汇储备 协整分析 预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年4月16日 |
Research and Prediction on the Proper Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China |
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| LIU Xue-song,CAO Xian-bing.Research and Prediction on the Proper Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2006,36(8):97-103. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xue-song CAO Xian-bing |
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| Abstract: | The foreign exchange reserves in China increase rapidly in recent years and have reached 818.872 billion US dollars in 2005.Have our foreign exchange reserves been too much? Will they be going on? Facing such situation,what attitude and policy should we take? This paper analyzes foreign exchange reserves using year data from 1979 to 2005 by the method of cointegration analysis,and answers the above questions. |
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| Keywords: | foreign exchange reserves cointegration analysis prediction |
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