| 基于灰色动态模型的丽江旅游人数预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 靳巧花,李帅彪,张彬彬.基于灰色动态模型的丽江旅游人数预测研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(22):42-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 靳巧花 李帅彪 张彬彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南大学旅游文化学院,云南丽江,674100
2. 昆明理工大学理学院,云南昆明,650500 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了累加数列的生成,以及GM(1,1)模型的建立.通过丽江市统计局获得从2005到2011年的旅游人数.以2005年至2011年的旅游人数为基础建立GM(1,1)模型,通过ma,tlab软件进行求解,可得丽江旅游人数的规律.通过分析模型的残差、相对误差、级比偏差,可以看出该模型的精度较高,可以用来预测2012年以及以后丽江每年的旅游人数.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 累加生成数列 丽江旅游人数 GM(1 1)模型 模型检验 |
Study on Tour Number in Lijiang based on the Dynamic Model of Grey System |
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| JIN Qiao-hua
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LI Shuai-biao
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ZHANG Bin-bin.Study on Tour Number in Lijiang based on the Dynamic Model of Grey System[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(22):42-46. |
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| Authors: | JIN Qiao-hua LI Shuai-biao ZHANG Bin-bin |
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| Institution: | 1.Tourism and Culture College of Yunnan University,Lijiang 674100,China) (2.School of Science,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes the cumulative number of column generation,and the GM (1,1) model.By the Lijiang Municipal Bureau of Statistics from 2005 to 2011 the number of tourists.Tourist arrivals for the 2005 to 2010 based on GM(1,1) model by Matlab software for solving,get the law of the number of tourists in Lijiang.By the residuals of the analysis model,the relative error level than the deviation can be seen that the higher the accuracy of the model can be used to predict the number of tourists to Lijiang from 2012 each year. |
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| Keywords: | gray system theory generate cumulative number of columns Lijiang tourist arrivals GM(1 1) model model checking |
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