中国碳强度的影响因素解析——基于LMDI分解方法

基于1996-2009年我国碳强度分析,采用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)进行因素分解.结果显示1996-2009年中国碳强度总体降低了2.9078吨/万元,其中能源强度效应最大,贡献率为85.64%,能源结构效应偏小,为26.78%,而产业结构效应表现出小幅正负波动,总体为-12.0975%,这说明能源结构效应和产业结构效应的潜力还没有充分发挥出来.因此,降低高耗能产业的能源强度是短期内降低碳强度的关键措施,但长远来看改善能源结构以及优化产业结构是降低碳强度的根本途径.

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Intensity in China:Based on LMDI Method

This paper presents the analysis on China’s total carbon intensity and that in six industries from 1996 to 2009,and the popular decomposition method-the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) has been adopted to analyze carbon intensity of China.The results show that total carbon intensity has decreased 2.9078 t/104 Yuan,and the decrease of energy intensity is the most important contributor,accounting for 85.64%of the total carbon intensity reduction.The optimization of energy structure is the second contributor for the decrease,accounting for 26.78%.While the change of industrial structure has limited impact on decreasing carbon intensity and it results in the small increase of carbon intensity.The findings suggest that the decrease of energy intensity has played a dominant role in the short term,but the potential power of optimization of industrial and the energy structure are to be witnessed in the long run.