| 我国双边贸易收支模型设定方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄万阳.我国双边贸易收支模型设定方法研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(2):63-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄万阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连,116025 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金，辽宁省教育厅项目，国家社科基金重大项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型,采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国11个双边贸易之间的关系.研究表明:供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响,供给因素、结构变化、汇率对我国双边进口与出口的影响存在不对称性.在出口与进口决定模型设定中不考虑供给因素或结构变化会导致严重的模型设定偏误.采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误.
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| 关 键 词： | 供给因素 结构变化 汇率 双边贸易 |
A Research on Methods of China' Bilateral Trade Balance Model Specification |
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| HUANG Wan-yang.A Research on Methods of China' Bilateral Trade Balance Model Specification[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(2):63-75. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Wan-yang |
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| Institution: | HUANG Wan-yang (Centre for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting,Dongbei University of Finance,Dalian 116025,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on export model with supply factors and structural change,by single equation method and two-equation method,this paper researches the relationships between foreign GDP,china’s GDP,structural change,RMB’s exchange rate and China’ bilateral trade.The study shows:Supply factors and structural change has important effect on China’ bilateral trade.Supply factors,structural change,RMB’s exchange rate has asymmetric effect on China’bilateral trade.Export model and import model without supply factors or structural change can cause serious model specification bias.There are serious errors in research by single equation method,in which trade balance is represented as export divided by import. |
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| Keywords: | supply factors structural change RMB’s exchange rate bilateral trade |
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