上海世博会的经济综合影响力指数模型

分析上海世博会在世博筹备建设和举办时期对上海市经济方面影响.筛选了世博会影响经济的四个方面(国民经济,财政收支,固定资产投资和对外经济贸易与旅游)的10个主要指标,构建了世博会影响经济的评价指标体系,针对每一项指标,利用1995年到2002的实际数据用指数回归拟合模型测算出2003-2010年在未筹办世博会情况下各项经济指标的估计(拟合)数据,并建立单指标的影响力指数模型,在分析2003年后的实际数据与拟合数据差异基础上,获得了上海世博会在每个指标方面对上海的影响力指数;建立了多指标综合影响力指数模型,得出总的经济影响力的指数为0.2403.考虑到2008年底金融危机势必会削弱世博会对经济的影响,通过参照另外两个同为中国直辖市的重庆和天津相同指标的变化,运用单独建立的模型,剔除金融危机对经济的影响,从而获得更客观地揭示世博对上海地区经济的真实影响程度.并就两个典型的指标给出了具体的演算过程,最后得到了消除了金融危机后的所有指标的影响力指数值,最终获得总的经济影响力的指数为0.2531,即世博会对上海市经济的实际贡献率为25.31%.

Models on Index of Comprehensive Effects of the World Expo' 2010 to the Growth of Economy in Shanghai

This paper analyzes the influence of Shanghai World Expo on Shanghai’s economy during its holding and preparation period,chooses main 10 indicators in such four aspects as economy,trade and tourism,builds the Expo evaluation index system on economy,uses actual data during 1995-2002 to calculate the estimated(fitted) data of each economic indicator without the Expo in Shanghai during 2003-2010 by exponential regression fitting model, establishes index model for the influence of each single indicator,obtains influence data of each indicator from the Expo based on the difference between actual data and fitted data after 2003,establishes a multi-indicator comprehensive index model and the obtained index of the total economic impact is 0.2403. By taking into account that the financial crisis at the end of 2008 was bound to weaken the World Expo impact on the economy,by comparing the change of identical indexes among Shanghai,Tianjin and Chongqing,through using the model alone and excluding the impact of financial crisis on the economy,the real extent of the influence of the Expo on the economy of Shanghai is more objectively revealed.Practical calculation process is given to two typical indicators,and,finally,all impact indicators index value after eliminating the influence of financial crisis is obtained and,ultimately,the economic impact total index is 0.2531.