| 基于分位数回归的我国R＆D经费投入影响因素的动态研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢兰云,王维国.基于分位数回归的我国R＆D经费投入影响因素的动态研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(2):43-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢兰云 王维国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,辽宁大连,116025
2. 东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁大连116025;东北财经大学经济计量与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025 |
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| 基金项目： | 辽宁省优秀人才支持计划项目，国家自然科学基金，教育部人文社会科学青年基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对我国R&D投入较少,R&D强度较低的现状,在对影响我国R&D投入因素进行假设分析的基础上,利用逐步回归方法对相关影响因素进行了筛选,得出经济发展水平、政府科技投入和产业结构是影响我国科技投入的主要因素,然后利用分位数回归模型对我国R&D投入在不同分位点上各影响因素的作用进行了详细的研究,研究发现政府科技投入的影响较稳定,随R&D投入的增多经济发展水平对其的影响在逐渐减少,而产业结构对其的影响则在逐渐增大,最后在此基础上提出了提高我国R&D投入的相关政策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | R&D R&D强度 分位数回归 影响因素 |
A Dynamic Analysis of Influence Factors on China's R&D Investment Based on the Quantile Regression Model |
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| XIE Lan-yun
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WANG Wei-guo.A Dynamic Analysis of Influence Factors on China's R&D Investment Based on the Quantile Regression Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(2):43-52. |
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| Authors: | XIE Lan-yun WANG Wei-guo |
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| Institution: | (2,3) (1.College of Management Science and Engineering,Dongbei University of Finance and Economy,Dalian 116025,China) (2.College of Mathematics & Quantitative Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economy,Dalian 116025,China) (3.Center for Econometric Analysis and Forcasting,Dongbei University of Finance and Economy,Dalian 116025,China) |
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| Abstract: | Our R&D investment is less and R&D intensity is low,these conditions have strictly limited our innovational capability.The paper uses stepwise least squares regression to determine the major factors based on what-if of the influence factors about Chinese R&D investment,then uses quantile regression model to study the dynamic changes of their impact on R&D investment on different quantile.We find that the influence of government R&D investment is more stable.With the increase in R&D investment,the effect of economic development is gradually reducing and the effect of industrial structure is gradually increasing. Based on these,the paper has some advices about the policy of increasing R&D investment. |
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| Keywords: | R&D R&D intensity quantile regression influence factor |
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