| 基于随机时间序列法的新疆麻疹发病率预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郑彦玲,秦伶俐,张利萍.基于随机时间序列法的新疆麻疹发病率预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(16):178-184. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郑彦玲 秦伶俐 张利萍 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830011
2. 新疆财经大学应用数学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830012 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 用2004～2010年新疆麻疹月发病率数据分析建立了ARIMA(0,2,1)(0,1,1)~(12)时间序列模型,该模型能够较好的预测短期内新疆麻疹的流行情况,对麻疹的流行情况进行预警,提前做好预防控制的准备.
|
| 关 键 词： | 新疆 麻疹 随机时间序列 预测 |
The Forecasting about Measles Incidence in Xinjiang Based on the Random Time Series Method |
| |
| ZHENG Yan-ling
,
QIN Ling-li
,
ZHANG Li-Ping.The Forecasting about Measles Incidence in Xinjiang Based on the Random Time Series Method[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(16):178-184. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHENG Yan-ling QIN Ling-li ZHANG Li-Ping |
| |
| Institution: | 1 (1.Xinjiang Medical University,College of Engineering,Urumqi 830011,China) (2.Xinjiang University of Finance and Economic,College of Mathematics,Urumqi 830011,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the reported data of measles of xinjiang province from 2004 to 2010,the author tries to establish ARIMA(0,2,1)(0,1,1)12 time series' model,the model can well predict short-term prevalence of measles in Xinjiang,and provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the measles. |
| |
| Keywords: | Xinjiang measles random time series forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
