我国房地产行业问题研究

结合数学、计量经济学和国民经济核算等方面的知识,分别从四个方面系统地研究了房地产行业的相关问题,首先,考虑到我国房地产市场存在地区差异性,利用地理加权回归方法(GWR)分别建立房地产行业需求和供给模型来反映该行业市场供需状况;其次,基于VAR模型分区域建立有效的房地产行业定价模型对未来房价走向进行预测,以西部地区的货币供应量对房价的影响为例,其滞后一期的货币供应量发生1个单位的正向变动,房价发生0.85个单位的正向变动;再次,对房地产行业关联度和发展态势建立了投入产出模型和固定效应的变系数面板数据模型,研究发现房地产行业与金融业、租赁和商务服务业、建筑业存在显著关联度,且根据固定效应的变系数面板数据模型结果,可具体分析房地产行业增加值的提高对其他行业的影响程度;最后,基于熵值法建立综合评价模型对天津市房地产行业的可持续发展性进行了研究和深入探讨.

The Empirical Study on China's Real Estate Industry

Combined with mathematics,econometrics and national economic accounting, this paper researches the real estate industry related problems from four aspects.Firstly,we establish the real estate industry demand and supply model using geographically weighted regression method(GWR) to reflect the industry market supply and demand situation.Secondly, we set up effective real estate industry pricing model to forecast the house prices based on VAR model.Taking the western region as example,if the first-lagged money supply changes a unit,the house prices will have 0.85 unit positive change.Thirdly,we establish the input-output model and fixed effects of variable coefficient panel data model,and find that the estate industry has significant correlation with the financial,leasing service and building industry. Lastly,based on the entropy method,we set up a comprehensive evaluation model to research the sustainable development of real estate industry of Tianjin.