| 带有潜伏期的狂犬病模型及控制策略研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 许传青,纪振伟,崔景安,冯业娟.带有潜伏期的狂犬病模型及控制策略研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2020(5):91-98. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许传青 纪振伟 崔景安 冯业娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京建筑大学理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(6147311,11371048);北京建筑大学市属高校基本科研业务费专项基金(X18017,X18080);稳定性理论优质课程建设项目(K2015004);校级实践教学改革研究项目(J1703);研究生创新基金项目(PG2018095)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究建立了狗与人两个群体的SEIR狂犬病模型,把狂犬病潜伏期阶段的传染性加入到模型中,利用遗传算法对1996年到2015年的数据进行拟合,估出了中国狂犬病的基本再生数R0≈1.66,证明了狂犬病无病平衡点的全局稳定性以及模型的一致持续性.根据数值模拟结果,发现处于潜伏期的犬类对人类狂犬病造成威胁.因此控制狂犬病的一个关键措施就是要做好犬的管理,减少与犬只的接触,这对抑制狂犬病的爆发有着重要的作用,也为我国狂犬病的控制提供了可靠的理论依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 狂犬病 SEIR模型 基本再生数 算法遗传 |
Control Strategy Research about the Rabies Model with Incubation Period |
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| XU Chuan-qing,JI Zhen-wei,CUI Jing-an,FENG Ye-juan.Control Strategy Research about the Rabies Model with Incubation Period[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2020(5):91-98. |
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| Authors: | XU Chuan-qing JI Zhen-wei CUI Jing-an FENG Ye-juan |
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| Institution: | (School of Science,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China) |
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| Abstract: | A SEIR rabies model concluding populations of dog and human is established in this paper.The virus infectious of dogs during the incubation period is discussed.Genetic algorithm is used to fit the human rabies data from 1996 to 2015 in China and the basic reproduction number is estimated.Global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and uniformly persistence of the model is proved.According to the numerical simulation predicts the epidemic of rabies,we obtain the incubation period dog is a big threat to human rabies and the main method is to control and reduce the contact with the dog.The study should provide a theoretical basis for controlling the rabies in China. |
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| Keywords: | rabies SEIR model basic reproduction number genetic algorithm |
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