基于X-12-ARIMA方法的迪拜原油价格季节性波动分析

油价时间序列往往受众多因素的影响,从而可以分解成各种成分.运用X-12-AR IM A方法分析迪拜原油价格的季节性波动,探讨油价运动规律,结果表明季节调整的整体效果较好,季节因素对中质高硫原油价格具有显著影响,夏、秋季推动油价上升,而春、冬季节使油价下跌,同时发现原油价格的短期变化主要由不规则事件和季节因素决定,而长期变化由趋势因素决定.

Analysis about Seasonal Fluctuation of Dubai Crude Oil Price Based on X-12-ARIMA Method

Oil price series are influenced constantly by numerous factors, so they can be decomposed into all sorts of components. Using X-12-ARIMA method, the paper analyzes seasonal fluctuation of Bubai crude oil price and its movement discipline. Empirical results show that the effect of seasonal adjustment is satisfactory, and seasonal factors have a significant impact on mid Intermediate high-sulfur crude oil price, both summer and autumn promote oil prices, while the spring and winter cause oil prices falling. Moreover, it indicates that the short-term change of oil prices is dominated by irregular events and seasonal factors, and the long-term change of oil prices is determined by trend factors.