| 基于r维正态扩散的区域热带气旋灾害模糊风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘合香,徐庆娟.基于r维正态扩散的区域热带气旋灾害模糊风险分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘合香 徐庆娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广西师范学院数学科学学院,广西,南宁,530023
2. 西师范学院数学科学学院,广西,南宁,530023;宁上海大学数学系,上海200444 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(41065002);国家自然科学基金(11061008); 广西科学研究与技术开发项目(桂科攻0993002-4); 广西教育厅科研项目(200911MS151) |
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| 摘 要： | 从1980-2008年影响广西的热带气旋灾情资料和地面观测资料中选取23组数据,构造灾情指数序列和致灾源指数序列.通过计算得到超越概率的灾害风险估计值.利用r维正态扩散将单值样本扩散为集值样本以构造原始信息矩阵,借助因素空间理论将其转化为模糊关系矩阵,通过模糊近似推理和模糊集重心的计算,得到以致灾源因子为输入样本近似估计灾情的风险值.然后用距离贴近度和择近原则进一步计算和分析致灾因子和承载体易损性的相关程度.最后,计算了各区域灾害的风险度,同时,给出供决策参考的热带气旋灾害风险度区划图.
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| 关 键 词： | 正态扩散 热带气旋灾害 模型 风险分析 |
Based on R-Dimensional Normal Proliferation Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Regional Tropical Cyclone Disasters |
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| LIU He-xiang,XU Qing-juan.Based on R-Dimensional Normal Proliferation Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Regional Tropical Cyclone Disasters[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(3). |
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| Authors: | LIU He-xiang XU Qing-juan |
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| Institution: | LIU He-xiang~1,XU Qing-juan~(1,2) (1.College of Mathematical Science,Guangxi Teachers Education University,Nanning 530023,China) (2.Department of Mathematics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,from 1980-2008 the impact of tropical cyclones in Guangxi disaster data and ground observation data,we select 23 sets of data and construct the disaster index sequence and disaster-causing source index sequence.By calculating we obtain disaster risk estimates of the probability of exceedance.Moreover,using r-dimensional normal proliferation, we proliferate single-valued samples to set-valued samples to construct the original information matrix,and translate it into fuzzy relationship matrix by... |
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| Keywords: | normal proliferation tropical cyclone disasters model risk analysis |
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