| 公共聚集场所特大火灾的灰色拓扑预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 马咏真,吴卢荣,陈小梅,陈永雪.公共聚集场所特大火灾的灰色拓扑预测模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马咏真 吴卢荣 陈小梅 陈永雪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学,交通学院,福建,福州,350002
2. 福建农林大学,计算机与信息学院,福建,福州,350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学(2008J0184); 福建农林大学教学改革资助(01jg04087) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1991年至2006年间中国公共聚集场所火灾统计资料,针对公共聚集场所特大火灾影响因子的不确定性和数据的波动性,运用灰色拓扑预测方法探讨了公共聚集场所特大火灾发生的规律,并建立灰色拓扑预测模型,预测未来5年内火灾发生情况.结果表明,所建立的灰色拓扑预测模型的检验精度都达到"好"的标准.因此采用灰色拓扑预测模型对中国公共聚集场所特大火灾发生情况进行预测结果比较可靠,可供消防部门参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 火灾科学 公共聚集场所 三次样条插值 灰色模型 拓扑预测 |
Prediction Model on Ultra Large Fire Accidents Happened in Public Aggregating Place Based on Grey Topological Theory |
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| MA Yong-zhen,WU Lu-rong,CHEN Xiao-mei,CHEN Yong-xue.Prediction Model on Ultra Large Fire Accidents Happened in Public Aggregating Place Based on Grey Topological Theory[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(4). |
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| Authors: | MA Yong-zhen WU Lu-rong CHEN Xiao-mei CHEN Yong-xue |
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| Institution: | MA Yong-zhen~1,WU Lu-rong~2,CHEN Xiao-mei~2,CHEN Yong-xue~2 (1.Traffic College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,350002,China) (2.College of Computer and Information,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the statistical data of ultra large fire accidents happened in public aggregating place of China between 1991 and 2006,aiming at the uncertainty of fire impact factors and the fluctuation of data,grey topological prediction model can be established by studying the law of fire disaster in grey topological prediction method.Based on the model, we predict the situation of ultra large fire disaster in the next four years in China.The results showed that all of the precision test of the model can re... |
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| Keywords: | fire science public aggregating place cubic spline interpolation grey model topology prediction |
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