| 基于机场货运预测的GM(1,1)建模过程问题分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 任新惠,董晨欣.基于机场货运预测的GM(1,1)建模过程问题分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(24). |
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| 作者姓名： | 任新惠 董晨欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津,300300 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型进行预测时,模拟精度和预测精度是关注的焦点.对原始数据构造缓冲算子和进行完整的前期检验,运用等维灰数递补的动态建模方法,针对误差建立残差修正模型,都可以提高预测的可信度.通过归纳建模各阶段可能出现的典型问题以及解决方法,以期对建立优化模型有所帮助.最后建立GM(1,1)模型预测天津滨海机场货邮吞吐量.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 缓冲算子 等维灰数递补 货邮吞吐量 |
Problem Analysis for Modeling GM(1,1) Based on Airport Freight Forcasting |
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| Abstract: | When forcasting is made bosed on gray system GM(1,1) model,simulation precision and prediction precision are focused.The construction of buffer operator and integrality test for original data,applacation of grey number of identical dimension recursive compensation,building error modified model,are all helpful for improving prediction cvedibility.Typical problems appearing in each phase and corresponding solution are summed up,and the aim is to optimize modeling process.Finally,GM(1,1) model is constructed to forcast freight handling in Tianjin Brinhai Airport. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model buffer operator grey number of identical dimension recursive compensation freight handling capacity |
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