广西经济增长与环境污染关系的库兹涅茨曲线研究

从环境库兹涅茨曲线假说出发,结合广西1997～2006年的主要污染物排放量和人均GDP数据,建立了广西环境污染与经济增长之间的多项式回归模型,并采用SAS软件进行分析,结果表明两者间呈倒"N"型分布.针对模型可能是因虚假回归而存在统计意义上的显著,对各序列依次做平稳性检验和对模型的残差项做协整性检验,保证了模型结果确凿可信.模型的建立不仅定量揭示出广西经济增长与环境污染程度之间的关系,而且剖析了经济增长与环境质量之间的变化规律,为广西环境与经济协调发展提供了决策参考和管理需求,为全面实施"生态广西"建设确立了科学依据.

Study on the Kuznets Curve of Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Guangxi

Based on the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve,the polynomial regression model of the economic growth and environmental pollution in Guangxi Province is established according to time series data:major pollutant emissions amount and GDP per capita of 1997-2006.Furthermore,SAS software is applied to estimate the model.The result shows that:the relationship presents inverted N pattern.However,spurious regression possibly results in statistical significance of the model,so the stability of time series and cointegration of residual of the model are tested in order to assure the credibility of model.The model not only elaborates the quantitative relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution,but also analyzes the changing regularity between the economic growth and environmental quality.Moreover,it provides policy-making reference and management needs for coordinated development of environment and economy in Guangxi,also it sets up scientific foundation for the comprehensive implementation of ″Ecology Guangxi″.