基于实时公交信息的乘客乘车决策研究

实时交通信息的发布使乘客出行更具灵活性.调查乘客对实时公交系统的应用情况及功能需求,并提取乘客乘车决策规则.考虑乘客决策的"有限理性"特征构建决策模型:将乘车舒适性因素转换为时间成本,运用云模型建立定量时间到定性概念的映射;依据出行参考点确定出行方案的因素权重,建立期望效用函数;构建不同的出行场景,运用决策模型进行出行方案排序.结果表明:该模型能够更大限度地克服乘客理性限制对决策的影响,对多线路多因素方案下的乘客乘车行为做出决策,决策结果符合乘客决策规则,有助于为公交资源的规划与管理提供指导依据.

Passenger Decision Making Process with Real-time Bus Information

Passengers’travelling is more flexible because of the release of real-time traffic information.The application and passengers’requirements for the intelligent bus system are investigate.Ride decision-making rules are extracted based on passenger preferences.Then a quantitative decision-making model considering passengers’limited rationality is proposed.Firstly,comfort factor is converted into the time cost,and the quantitative real-time data are transformed to qualitative concepts by using the cloud model.Secondly,weights of factors of candidate schemes are determined according to reference points,and the expected utility function is established.Thirdly,two travel scenarios are constructed.Proposed decision-making model is used to rank candidate schemes.The case study shows that this model can overcome the influence of passengers’rational restriction on decision-making to a greater extent.For multi-line and multi-factor ride decision problem,this model is effective for predicting passenger behavior,and the results are compliant with the ride decision-making rules.This research is helpful to provide guidance on the planning and management of public transport resources.