| 基于灰色关联理论的阿拉尔市城镇化水平评价及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭丽峰,陈小丽,张吉林,齐立美,晁增福.基于灰色关联理论的阿拉尔市城镇化水平评价及预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2017(6):279-286. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭丽峰 陈小丽 张吉林 齐立美 晁增福 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔,843300;2. 塔里木大学人文学院,新疆阿拉尔,843300 |
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| 基金项目： | 塔里木大学校长基金青年创新资金项目(TDSKSS1316)，兵团软科学研究计划项目(2013BB025) |
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| 摘 要： | 从社会发展指标、经济建设指标、社会稳定指标和生态环境指标四个方面选取16个指标作为评价阿拉尔市城镇化水平指标,运用灰色关联理论法,计算各指标之间的关联度并排序.选取排名前面的指标,运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,建立阿拉尔市城镇化水平灰色预测模型,通过残差分析检验了模型的可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇化 灰色关联理论 GM(1 1)预测模型 |
Evaluation and Prediction of Urbanization Levels of Alear City Based on Gray Correlation Analysis |
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| GUO Li-feng,CHEN Xiao-li,ZHANG Ji-lin,QI Li-mei,CHAO Zeng-fu.Evaluation and Prediction of Urbanization Levels of Alear City Based on Gray Correlation Analysis[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2017(6):279-286. |
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| Authors: | GUO Li-feng CHEN Xiao-li ZHANG Ji-lin QI Li-mei CHAO Zeng-fu |
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| Abstract: | A total of 16 indexes were selected from four aspects of social development,economic construction,social stability and ecological environment to evaluate the index system of urbanization levels of Alaer City in Xinjiang.Grey correlation theory was employed to caculate the correlation and to acheive ranks among indexes.By selecting the indexes in the top of the ranking and using grey prediction model GM(1,1),it endeavors to propose the Alaer urbanization gray forecast model and test the feasibility of the model through residual analysis. |
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| Keywords: | urbanization level gray relation analysis GM(1 1) forecast model |
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