| 基于HP-ENN-MC模型降雨量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊文真,程九菊,李红娟.基于HP-ENN-MC模型降雨量预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2017(8):200-205. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊文真 程九菊 李红娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 信阳职业技术学院数学与计算机科学学院,河南信阳,464000;2. 昆明理工大学质量发展研究院,云南昆明,650000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(51066002/E060701)，NSFC-云南联合基金资助项目(U0937604) |
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| 摘 要： | 综合HP滤波、Elman神经网络、马尔科夫链的优点建立HP-ENN-MC模型对某地区10年内降雨量进行预测.以某地区1990-2015年植物生育期(6-10月)的降雨量数据作为实验训练样本,以2010-2015年(6-10月)的降雨量数据为实验的测试样本,证明HP-ENN-MC模型的实用性.由最后实验结果得到,预测平均相对误差为3.83%.所建模型能够对降雨量准确预测,与Elman、ENN-MC模型相比,HP-ENN-MC模型对降雨量预测更有效.
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| 关 键 词： | Elman模型 ENN-MC模型 HP-ENN-MC模型 降雨量预测 |
Rainfall Prediction Based on HP-ENN-MC Model |
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| XIONG Wen-Zhen,CHENG Jiu-Ju,LI Hong-Juan.Rainfall Prediction Based on HP-ENN-MC Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2017(8):200-205. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Wen-Zhen CHENG Jiu-Ju LI Hong-Juan |
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| Abstract: | Objective This paper HP filter,Elman neural network,Markov chain their nature establish HP-ENN-MC model to predict rainfall.Methods According to a regional 1950-2015 crop growth period (JuneOctober) rainfall data 1990-2009 year (JuneOctober) rainfall as the training sample,2010-2015 (JuneOctober) rainfall effectiveness as a test sample to verify the model,Results the results showed that the mean prediction relative error of 3.93％.Conclusion The model to predict the effect is well,compared with Elman,HP-ENN-MC model more suitable for rainfall prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Elman model ENN-MC model HP-ENN-MC model rainfall |
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