粮食最低收购价政策问题研究

利用聚类分析、逐步回归分析确定小麦与稻谷种植面积模型和指标体系.建立综合指标评价模型和ARMA模型,可知:最低收购政策具有托市效应.结合时间趋势剔除法、蛛网模型,可知:小麦和稻谷价格波动呈现5、3年的周期性,分别满足发散型、收敛型蛛网形态.建立基于补偿法的最低收购价定价模型并用BP神经网络模型进行检验.基于反证法,推知调控最低收购价提高5%小麦种植面积的做法是不可行的.最后提出了调控粮食种植的建议·

Study on the Policy of Minimum Purchase Price of Grain

With food prices as the research object,analyze and research the grain price system of our country law,reasonable pricing and promotion of wheat planting scheme.Firstly,through data processing and analysis,the use of the Cobweb theory,special law to establish the cobweb model of grain price system in China.Then,using optimization theory,a single objective optimization the model,combined with LINGO software to solve the optimal solution,to evaluate the "Twelve-Five " period of the minimum purchase price policy for grain,and in 2017 the grain purchase price forecast.Finally,using mathematical statistics and analysis principle,establish multiple linear regression model,the multivariate linear regression model of wheat planting area,and develop specific implementation plans.