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GM(1,1)改进模型及其应用
引用本文:王钟羡,吴春笃.GM(1,1)改进模型及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(9):20-25.
作者姓名:王钟羡  吴春笃
作者单位:1. 江苏大学理学院力学系,江苏,镇江,212013;南京理工大学理学院,南京,210094
2. 江苏大学生物与环境工程学院,江苏,镇江,212013
基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金资助项目 (项目编号 :BK991 0 9)
摘    要:根据 GM( 1 ,1 )灰色模型的指数特性 ,通过在区间上求积分给出了关于背景值的一个比较确切的计算公式 ,讨论了由此建立的 GM( 1 ,1 )改进模型的适用范围和预测精度 .结果表明改进模型比原 GM( 1 ,1 )模型适用性要强、模拟和预测精度要高 ,不仅适用于低增长序列、也适用于高增长序列 ,不仅适用于短期预测 ,同样也适用于中、长期预测

关 键 词:GM(1  1)模型  背景值  构造方法  适用范围
修稿时间:2002年10月31

The Establishment and Application of a Improved GM(1,1) Model
WANG Zhong\|xian ,\ WU Chun\|du.The Establishment and Application of a Improved GM(1,1) Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2003,33(9):20-25.
Authors:WANG Zhong\|xian  \ WU Chun\|du
Institution:WANG Zhong\|xian 1,\ WU Chun\|du 2
Abstract:According to the exponential function form of the GM(1,1) model, a new formula about the background value of x (1) (t) in the region \, which is used when establishing GM(1,1), is established by integrating x (1) (t) from k to k+1. And, the application domain and the prediction precision of the consequent improved GM(1,1) model are discussed. The conclusion is obtained that the improved GM(1,1) model based on it is of better applicability and of higher precision than the original one. It is suitable to both the low growth index series and the high growth index series, and can be used to for both short\|time prediction and long\|time prediction. So it is a better model for imitating and predicting.
Keywords:GM (1  1) model  forecast precision  structure method  applicable region
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