| 基于灰色马尔可夫预测模型的农村人均收入预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 钱雷雷,夏乐天,梁静仪.基于灰色马尔可夫预测模型的农村人均收入预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(11):96-101. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钱雷雷 夏乐天 梁静仪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学理学院,江苏南京,210098
2. 广东省佛山市南海区第一中学,广东佛山,528252 |
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| 摘 要： | 以武汉市农村人均收入为样本,将灰色预测模型和马尔可夫链预测模型相结合,通过对比预测的数据信息与实际数据信息差距,对2011年和2012年武汉市农村人均收入进行了预测计算.根据相关模拟检验与残差修正,灰色马尔可夫链可视为农村人均收入预测的可行且有效的方法.结果显示,单纯地运用灰色模型,预测值与实际值的误差均值是0.687%;通过马尔可夫链模型的二次模拟得到的误差明显减小.
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| 关 键 词： | 农村人均收入 灰色模型 马尔可夫预测模型 |
The Forcast of Per Capita Income in Rural Areas Based on Gray Markov Model |
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| QIAN Lei-lei
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XIA Le-tian
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LIANG Jing-yi.The Forcast of Per Capita Income in Rural Areas Based on Gray Markov Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2013,43(11):96-101. |
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| Authors: | QIAN Lei-lei XIA Le-tian LIANG Jing-yi |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) (2.Nanhai No.1 High School of Foshan in Guangdong Province,Foshan 528252,China) |
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| Abstract: | By combination of gray prediction model with Markov chain theory,we use the Wuhan rural per capita income data for the sample and make the forcast of 2011 and 2012.According to the related simulation test and the residual modification,the Gray Markov Model could be deemed an effictive method to forcast the per capita income in rural areas.The result show that the average error is 0.687%by the simply use of GM(1,1) and the average error is obviously decreased by using the Gray Markov Model. |
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| Keywords: | Per capita income Gray prediction model Markov model |
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