中国物流业碳排放特征及其影响因素分析——基于LMDI分解技术

在对我国物流业碳排放特征进行分析的基础上,运用LMDI分解技术,建立中国物流业人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1991-2010年能源结构、能源效率、运输方式、物流发展、经济增长以及人口等6种因素对物流业人均碳排放的影响.分析表明:经济增长是拉动物流业碳排放增长最主要的动力,在研究期间呈指数增长的趋势.运输方式对碳排放增长也表现出明显的促进作用,能源结构和能源效率虽然表现出拉动作用,但效果微弱.而物流发展因素则对物流业人均碳排放量表现出明显的抑制作用.因此,应大力推进物流业科技水平的提高,进一步发挥物流发展因素对碳排放的抑制作用,同时,优化物流运输体系,形成以铁路为主体,水运和管道为支撑,公路和航空运输为辅的低碳化的综合运输体系.

Character of Carbon Emission of Logistics Industry in China and Its Affecting Factors Decomposition Analysis:based on LMDI technique

This paper uses LMDI technique to establish a factors decomposition model of carbon emission per capital in China's logistics industry,based on the feature analysis of carbon emission in China's logistics industry.The model is adopted to quantitative analyze the impact of six factors,which are energy structure、energy efficiency、transportation mode、development of logistics economic growth and population factors on carbon emission per head from 1991 to 2010 in China's logistic industry.The results illustrate that economic growth is the most important factor which pull the carbon emission growth of the logistics industry and show the exponential growth trend during this period.The transportation mode also shows a significant role in promoting carbon emission growth.Although energy structure and energy efficiency show a pulling effect,the effect is weak.While logistics development factor exhibits a significant inhibitory effect on per capita carbon emission scales of the logistics industry. Therefore,we should vigorously promote the scientific and technological level of the logistics industry in order to further develop the inhibitory effect of logistics development factors in the decrease of carbon emission in logistics industry,at the same time,we should optimize the logistics and transport system and formulate a system which mainly lies on railways, waterways and pipelines for support,road and air transport for supplement.