中国二氧化碳排放的影响因素:基于区域的实证研究

选取我国部分省际1995—2008年数据,并根据各地区GDP和CO_2排放数据将它们划分成四个区域,运用对数平均Divisia指数分解法,把各区域CO_2排放增长率分解为11种驱动因素的加权贡献,并对这一时期中的3个时间段和每一种驱动因素进行了研究.结果表明:(1)对各区域CO_2排放增长的正向影响因素为人均GDP、家庭年平均收入、人口总量、交通工具数量和家庭数量;主要的负向影响因素为生产部门能源强度、居民生活能源强度.(2)在研究的每一阶段,各个区域人均GDP增长都是CO_2排放增长的最大驱动因素,同时家庭年均收入的提高对CO_2排放起到了持续的推动作用,尤其是第二阶段,这也表明我国的CO_2排放增长和居民生活水平密切相关.(3)各个区域CO_2排放下降的主要影响因素是生产部门的能源利用效率的提高,这与各个区域加大研发经费支出所带来的技术进步和企业所有制结构变化有着密切的关系.因此提高生产部门的能源利用效率是减少CO_2排放的最重要措施.研究结论为我国在城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量,国家和地方政府建立相应的鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制,各个省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式等提供相关决策依据.

Driving Factors of CO2 Emission in China: Based on the Empirical Analysis for Areas

This paper adopts the data of some provinces in China during 1995 to 2008, then divides them into four regions according to their GDP and CO_2emissions.The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Decomposition Method is used to decompose the growth rate of Commissions in all regions into the weighted contributions from 11 kinds of the driving factors,furthermore,three periods in these years and each driving factors are analyzed respectively. The result implies that:(1) per capita GDP,average household income,total population,number of vehicle,and number of family are all positive driving factors to the increase CO_2 emissions in all regions;but the main negative driving factors are energy intensity of production sector,household energy intensity.(1) per capita GDP growth of all regions is the strongest driving factor in every stage.The improve of average household income works continuously on driving the CO_2 emissions too,especially in the second period, this alsa indicates that the growth of Commissions in China are closely relevant to people's living standard.(3) Improvement of energy efficiency in the production sector is a major factor for decline of CO_2 emissions in all regions,which closely relates to technology progress driven by increase in R&D expenditures of all regions and changes in ownership structure of industrial enterprises.Therefore,improve the energy efficiency in the production sector is the most important way to decrease the CO_2 emissions.The research conclusions provide relevant decision-making basis for our country controlling carbon emissions increment in the process of urbanization and the upgrading of the industrial structure,and for the state and the local governments setting up corresponding encouraging policies and technology research and development support mechanism,and for each province construction low carbon economy development models with various regional features.