灰色预测模型的优化及应用

针对GM(1,1)模型在不同初始条件下预测精度不同的问题,在同一准则下,给出了两种不同初始条件下GM(1,1)优化模型的预测公式.在此基础上,证明出在同一准则下两种优化模型的模拟预测值相等,且都能获得较高的模拟预测精度.最后选取2006-2011年河南省城镇居民人均收入实际值为依据,建立GM(1,1)优化模型,并预测出2012、2013年河南省城镇居民人均收入,为相关决策部门提供了理论依据.

Optimization of Grey Forecasting Model and Its Application

As the problem that different initial condition caused different forecast precision in grey forecasting model,this paper put forward two grey optimization models under different initial conditions based on the same criteria.On this basis,the results show that both the optimal models have the same simulation and prediction values with higher precision. Finally,based on the case of per capital annual income of urban residents in Henan Province during 2006-2011,the per capital income condition in 2012 and 2013were predicted to provide scientific basis for the corresponding decision-making departments.