| 我国人口时间序列拟合模型的比较与选择 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙秋霞,王镇岭,高齐圣.我国人口时间序列拟合模型的比较与选择[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙秋霞 王镇岭 高齐圣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东科技大学理学院,山东,青岛,266510;青岛大学复杂性科学研究所,山东,青岛,266071
2. 青岛大学复杂性科学研究所,山东,青岛,266071 |
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| 基金项目： | 青岛市教科学计划项目(08R-23); 山东科技大学“春蕾计划”项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对我国1990年至2007年共18年的人口数据进行实证分析,运用时间序列的三个不同模型,对我国人口的变化规律进行了拟合研究;并给出了反映各个模型拟合精度的AIC值和SBC值;最后,通过对所建模型的比较分析,对拟合模型的选择提出了相关建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 确定性因素分解法建模 ARIMA模型 残差自回归模型 |
Comparison and Selection of the Fitting Models Based on the Time Series of China Population |
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| SUN Qiu-xia,WANG Zhen-ling,GAO Qi-sheng.Comparison and Selection of the Fitting Models Based on the Time Series of China Population[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2010,40(2). |
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| Authors: | SUN Qiu-xia WANG Zhen-ling GAO Qi-sheng |
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| Institution: | SUN Qiu-xia~(1,2),WANG Zhen-ling~2,GAO Qi-sheng~2 (1.College of Science,Sh,ong University of Science , Technology,Qingdao 266510,China) (2.Institute of Complexity Science,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China) |
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| Abstract: | Evidence-Based Analysis on the data of China population from 1990 to 2007 and three different time series model are given,which have fitted the change regulation of China population.At the same time,values of AIC and SBC are showed for reflecting the precision of fitting.Finally,through comparison and analysis of exsiting models some advices are given to how to choose the model. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis construct model based on decomposition of certain factors ARIMA model auto-regressive model |
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