行业内中小企业信用评估模型及应用

在对中国中小企业特点的分析基础上,建立起三层次的行业内中小企业信用评估指标体系。并将其中的财务状况指标体系单独列出,通过对20家安徽省农资中小企业的调查,以此行业为例,利用主成分分析法筛选变量.简化原指标系统,进一步利用Logistic函数对财务状况指标计算公式进行了修正.然后通过层次分析法对各层指标权重进行计算,建立起行业内中小企业信用评估模型.同时根据商业银行的放贷目的,对模型进行了进一步讨论,在确定银行贷款临界概率的基础上,利用中小企业信用评估模型建立起银行贷款决策模型,并代入2005年度上半年合肥丰乐种业股份有限公司的数据进行了实证分析.

Credit Assessment Model and Application for Middle and Small Business in a Dustry

Based on the analysis on the characteristic of Chinese middle and small business, this paper sets up a credit assessment indicator system in three levels for middle and small business within an industry,and separately lists its financial standing indicator system.After investigating 20 middle and small businesses in agricultural industry in Anhui Province,the paper takes agricultural industry as an example,screens variables using principal component analysis to simplify the original indicator system,and amends the calculating formula of financial standing indicator system further utilizing the Logistic function.After then,it calculates the weight of indicators in each level by analytic hierarchy process,and sets up credit assessment model for middle and small business within an industry.At the same time,it carries out the further discussion on models according to the loaning goal of commercial bank.On the basis of confirming the critical probability for bank to loan,taking advantage of credit assessment model for middle and small business,the paper sets up decision-making model for bank to loan,and carries on a demonstrated analysis by inputting the data from Hefei Fengle Seed Co.LTD in first half year of 2005.