小波随机耦合模型在三江平原井灌区地下水位预测中的应用

近些年来,由于水田面积迅速增加,导致三江平原井灌水稻区地下水位普遍下降,"吊泵"、局部超采现象时有发生.为解决上述问题,以853农场为例,对实测地下水埋深资料进行差分处理,采用小波理论和随机水文学方法建立了逐月地下水埋深小波随机耦合模型,精度检验结果表明,模型有效性和可靠性较高.预测结果表明,若仍然采用过去的地下水开采模式,853农场未来地下水埋深将会持续下降,因此当地应加强地下水资源的科学管理.该模型揭示了区域地下水动态变化规律,为853农场乃至整个三江平原地下水资源的可持续利用提供了科学依据.

Wavelet-Stochastic Coupling Model and Its Application for Forecasting Groundwater Level in Well Irrigation Area in Sanjiang Plain

The rapid increase of paddy field acreage has led to widely descending of groundwater level in area of well irrigation paddy in Sanjiang Plain recent years.More and more hanging pump and partial overpumping have been occurring in area of well irrigation paddy.In order to solve above-mentioned problems,this paper took Farm 853 as example,through applying the wavelet theory and stochastic hydrology method to build up the wavelet-stochastic coupling model that can forecast the monthly groundwater embedment depth after the difference treatment towards the actual observation groundwater embedment depth datum.The results of precision test show that this model had upper validity and reliability.The forecasting results show that the groundwater level of Farm 853 would continually descending in the future if this area still applies the foregone groundwater exploitation mode.Therefore,the author suggests that this area should increase the groundwater resource scientific management.This model revealed the region′s groundwater dynamic variation regularities.The study can provide scientific gist for sustainable utilization of groundwater resource in Farm 853 so much as the entire Sanjiang Plain.