| 预报因子选择的条件数方法及其在台风强度预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 农吉夫.预报因子选择的条件数方法及其在台风强度预报中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(23). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 农吉夫 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 广西民族大学理学院; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(11061005);广西教育厅科研项目(201204LX083) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 选择合适的变量是建立多元线性回归方程的重要问题.以减弱诸多变量之间的复共线性为目标,采用条件数分析方法选择多元回归模型的自变量.最后以西北太平洋海域2001-2011年5-7月的台风强度为研究对象,利用条件数方法建立预报方程进行预报试验,并进一步将该预报方法与逐步回归方法进行对比分析.
|
| 关 键 词： | 复共线性 条件数 预报因子 台风强度 |
Selection of Factors Based on Condition Number and its Application for Typhoon Intensity Prediction |
| |
| Abstract: | The important thing is to choose suitable independent variable in building multivariate linear regression equation.In this paper,a method in choosing independent variable of multi-linear regression model is given in order to weaken the multi-collinearity among the independent variables by using method of condition number.Finally,the typhoon intensity prediction experiment based on condition number method is conducted in the northwest Pacific Ocean from May to July 2001-2011,and further the forecast method and the stepwise regression method are compared. |
| |
| Keywords: | multi-collinearity condition number factor typhoon intensity |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
