| 基于残差修正的GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭兰兰,邹志红,安岩.基于残差修正的GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中的应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(19). |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭兰兰 邹志红 安岩 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(41071322) |
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| 摘 要： | 将基于残差修正的GM(1,1)模型应用到永定河流域官厅水库出口断面的水质预测中,对常规污染物COD,DO,NH_3-N的浓度值进行趋势预测并对预测结果进行后验差检验.结果表明,与传统的GM(1,1)模型相比,残差修正的GM(1,1)模型能够有效提高预测精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 水质预测 GM(1 1)模型 残差修正 |
Study on Water Quality Forecast Based on GM(1,1) Residual Modification Model |
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| Abstract: | The modified residual GM(1,1) model was applied to forecast the water quality of Guanting reservoir in Yongding River.The concentrations of COD,DO,and NH_3-N were forecasted,and the forecast results were examined by posterior error test.The results show that the proposed model can effectively improve the forecast accuracy,compared to the traditional GM(1,1) model. |
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| Keywords: | water quality forecast GM(1 1) model residual modification |
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