北京市水资源利用建模分析研究

以北京市为例,分别应用无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型和非线性模型对北京市2001年-2010年的用水量进行了建模,利用最优化方法,计算了上述两种模型的最优组合模型,通过三种模型分别计算了北京市2001年-2010年的水资源利用量,并与北京市2001年-2010年的实际用水量进行了对比,采用精度检验方法,分别对无偏灰色模型,非线性模型和组合模型进行了精度检验,计算结果表明,加权组合模型是三种模型中精度最高的模型,通过组合模型计算得出的用水量值与实际水资源利用量相比误差最小,由此得出,可以利用组合模型对北京市未来的水资源利用量进行预测,预测结果可为其他相关研究提供参考.

Research on Models of Water Consumption in Beijing

Taking Beijng as an example and on the basis of the water resources consumption data of Beijing from the year 2001 to 2010,this paper applied unbiased grey GM(1,1)forecasting model and nonlinear prediction model to model for the water consumption of Beijing from the year 2001 to 2010.Through optimization method and using the application software MATLAB,we concluded the weighted combination of the above two models with weighted coefficient.Computing water use of Beijing from 2001 to 2010 through the three models and comparing the calculated results with factual water utilization values of Beijing from the year 2001 to 2010,it was drawn that the combination had the highest accuracy and the lowest error.It was proved that the weighted combination of unbiased grey GM(1,1)model and nonlinear was appropriate for prediction of water resources utilization in Beijing.We can predict water utilization of Beijing with the combined model and the prediction can be seen as a reference for relevant research.