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基于马尔可夫模型的我国东、中、西部的产业结构预测
引用本文:张浩,王福林,索瑞霞,申雷明.基于马尔可夫模型的我国东、中、西部的产业结构预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(14).
作者姓名:张浩  王福林  索瑞霞  申雷明
摘    要:应用马尔可夫预测方法对我国东、中、西部产业结构预测问题进行研究,并给出了其马尔可夫的状态转移概率矩阵的估算模型,经计算结果表明此方法具有较高的预测精度,并应用此方法预测了我国2009年和2010年的东、中、西部的产业结构.

关 键 词:产业结构  马尔可夫模型  转移概率矩阵  非线性归划

Forecasting the Industry Structure of the East、the Middle and the West Based on Markov Model
ZHANG Hao,WANG Fu-lin,SUO Rui-xia,SHEN Lei-ming.Forecasting the Industry Structure of the East、the Middle and the West Based on Markov Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2010,40(14).
Authors:ZHANG Hao  WANG Fu-lin  SUO Rui-xia  SHEN Lei-ming
Abstract:The paper discusses how to forecast the industry structure of the east、the middlel and the west,then Markov forecast method to forecasting this structure is given, and the estimating model of state transition probability matrix is provided.The result shows that this method has the high precision to this issue,then the author applies the method to forecast the industry structure of the east、the middle and the west.
Keywords:industry structure  markov model  transition probability matrix  nonlinear programming problem
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