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基于数据的生猪价格风险分析模型研究与实证分析
引用本文:贾会玲,杨晓光,邓若鸿,吴登生,李建平.基于数据的生猪价格风险分析模型研究与实证分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(12).
作者姓名:贾会玲  杨晓光  邓若鸿  吴登生  李建平
基金项目:科技部"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目
摘    要:生猪价格的大起大落,养殖户、相关研究人员和政府都密切关注.如何分析影响生猪价格的风险因素、预测未来生猪价格的走势分布,具有重要的意义.通过对生猪价格及其影响因素的风险分析,运用落点概率和多元线性回归等方法建立了生猪价格风险分析模型,预测未来4~6期生猪价格的风险分布,以期对养殖户和政府提供一定的参考意义.

关 键 词:风险分析  多元线性回归  Cochrane-Orcutt迭代法  落点概率

Risk Analysis Model and Empirical Analysis of Live Pig Price Based on Data
JIA Hui-ling,YANG Xiao-guang,DENG Ruo-hong,WU Deng-sheng,LI Jian-ping.Risk Analysis Model and Empirical Analysis of Live Pig Price Based on Data[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2010,40(12).
Authors:JIA Hui-ling  YANG Xiao-guang  DENG Ruo-hong  WU Deng-sheng  LI Jian-ping
Abstract:Live pig price changes sharply,which calls much attention of live pig producers and government.It is important to systematically analyze the risk factors influencing live pig price and forecast the change of live pig price.Through analyzing live pig price and the actors influencing it,this article establishes a risk analysis model and predicts its probability distribution in 4~6 months by falling area probability,multiple linear regression,etc,in order to give some references for live pig producers and government.
Keywords:risk analysis  multiple linear regression  cochrane-orcutt iterative method  falling area probability
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