组合预测模型在能源消费预测中的应用

能源的需求预测是一个复杂的非线形系统,其发展变化具有增长性和波动性,组合预测对于信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性.本文利用我国能源消费的历史数据,采用灰色预测的GM(1,1)模型、BP神经网络模型和三次指数平滑模型进行优化组合,建立了能源消费组合预测模型,实证分析结果表明预测值和实际结果有很好的一致性,可以作为能源消费预测的有效工具.

The Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Chinese Energy Consumption

Energy demand forecasting is a complex non-linear system,its development and changes with growth and volatility,and the combination forecasting has some practicablity in complex economic system with uncompleted information.Depending on historical data of Chinese energy consumption,we make use of grey forecasting model,BP neural network model and cubic exponential smoothing method to optimize the combination,then construct the energy consumption forecasting model,The empirical results show that predictive value and the actual results are in good agreement,so we can take the model as an effective tool to predict Chinese future energy