| 基于时间序列模型的全国30家电台收视率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚芳,李越,肖春来.基于时间序列模型的全国30家电台收视率分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(13). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚芳 李越 肖春来 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京,100144
2. 北方工业大学理学院,北京,100144 |
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| 摘 要： | 以湖南电视台和北京卫视为代表,对全国30家电视台卫星频道2008全年日收视率进行时间序列分析,建立了四种拟合模型.其中,大部分电台收视率具有长期趋势或长期趋势和季节效应的综合影响,分别建立ARIMA模型和乘积季节模型,并进行预测,其结果表明模型拟合效果较好.
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| 关 键 词： | 电视收视率 ARIMA模型 SARIMA模型 预测 |
Based on Time Series the Analysis of TV Ratings of 30 TV Channels |
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| YAO Fang,LI Yue,XIAO Chun-lai.Based on Time Series the Analysis of TV Ratings of 30 TV Channels[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(13). |
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| Authors: | YAO Fang LI Yue XIAO Chun-lai |
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| Institution: | YAO Fang~1,LI Yue~2,XIAO Chun-lai~2 (1.College of Economics and Management,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China) (2.College of Science,China) |
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| Abstract: | We analyse the daily ratings of 30 TV channels in 2008 by time series analysis in this article,taking Beijing TV,Hunan TV for examples.Finally,we establish four types of fitting model.Among them,most of the TV ratings are with long-term trend or the combination of long-term trend and seasonal effect.Based on this,we mainly establish ARIMA model and SARIMA model.In addition,the results of forecast show us that the models are well fitted. |
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| Keywords: | television ratings ARIMA model SARIMA model predict |
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