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基于出行目的链的出行生成—分布组合模型分析
引用本文:兰鹏,高跃文,韩宝明.基于出行目的链的出行生成—分布组合模型分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(13).
作者姓名:兰鹏  高跃文  韩宝明
作者单位:1. 广东省铁路建设投资集团,广东广州,510635
2. 天津市渤海城市规划设计研究院,天津,300450
3. 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044
摘    要:目前,我国城市轨道交通客流预测大多采用交通产生、吸引、出行分布、出行方式划分四阶段模型,其中出行生成与分布是方式划分和交通分配的前提,是模型重要的组成部分.在对传统的四阶段模型的分析基础上,结合非集计模型的优点,论文提出了基于出行目的链的出行生成—分布组合模型.模型充分考虑了居民出行链、出行目的等对客流预测的影响,在完善我国轨道交通客流预测理论和方法,提高预测精度等方面具有一定的理论价值和实际意义.

关 键 词:轨道交通  客流预测  出行目的链  四阶段模型  非集计模型

Study on Trip Origination-distribution Combined Model Based on the Chain of Travel's Purpose
LAN Peng,GAO Yue-wen,HAN Bao-ming.Study on Trip Origination-distribution Combined Model Based on the Chain of Travel's Purpose[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(13).
Authors:LAN Peng  GAO Yue-wen  HAN Bao-ming
Institution:LAN Peng~1,GAO Yue-wen~2,HAN Bao-ming~3 (1.Guangdong Provincial Railway Construction Investment Group CO.,LTD,Guangzhou 510635,China) (2.Tianjin BOHAI Urban Planning & Design Institute,Tianjin 300450,China) (3.School of traffic and transportation,Beijing jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
Abstract:Now,many cities adopt four steps model for passenger flow forecast.However, it doesn't consider many points,such as the residential travel behavior,the effect of different travel's purpose to attraction and impedance,and so on.Through the analysis of the four steps model and the disaggregated model for passenger flow forecast,the thesis puts forward a new model,named the trip origination-distribution combined model based on the chain of travel's purpose.This model solves the problems in the four steps model...
Keywords:rail traffic  passenger flow forecast  chain of the travel's purpose  four steps model  disaggregated model  
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