| Abstract: | This article proposes a method for approximating integrated likelihoods in finite mixture models. We formulate the model in terms of the unobserved group memberships, z, and make them the variables of integration. The integral is then evaluated using importance sampling over the z. We propose an adaptive importance sampling function which is itself a mixture, with two types of component distributions, one concentrated and one diffuse. The more concentrated type of component serves the usual purpose of an importance sampling function, sampling mostly group assignments of high posterior probability. The less concentrated type of component allows for the importance sampling function to explore the space in a controlled way to find other, unvisited assignments with high posterior probability. Components are added adaptively, one at a time, to cover areas of high posterior probability not well covered by the current importance sampling function. The method is called incremental mixture importance sampling (IMIS).IMIS is easy to implement and to monitor for convergence. It scales easily for higher dimensional mixture distributions when a conjugate prior is specified for the mixture parameters. The simulated values on which the estimate is based are independent, which allows for straightforward estimation of standard errors. The self-monitoring aspects of the method make it easier to adjust tuning parameters in the course of estimation than standard Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. With only small modifications to the code, one can use the method for a wide variety of mixture distributions of different dimensions. The method performed well in simulations and in mixture problems in astronomy and medical research. |
